Bush imperilled

The evidence is certainly mounting that Bush is becoming more and more powerless in Washington. The Iraq war, his disastrous performance after Hurricane Katrina, and his unpopular welfare reform are all acting to drag down the president. Politicians in Washington are becoming less likely to support the administration, and power is shifting towards the House and Senate in Washington.

Firstly, Bush's two nominations for the Supreme Court, John Roberts and Harriet Miers, are notable only by their absolute blandness. John Roberts is more understandable. His nomination came at a time when the Senate was busy tearing itself apart over the nomination of Priscilla Owen and others to lower courts, so it seems reasonable to nominate someone who at least has a chance of being confirmed, and at least is moderately conservative. Many on the right weren't happy, but allowed it to pass - the biggest complaint was that Roberts would do nothing to overturn Roe vs. Wade, the landmark abortion case. However, he was confirmed by a 78-22 Senate vote. Miers, on the other hand, looks like having a much tougher ride; however, almost all the complaints are coming from the right. She is yet again a moderate conservative, but she is the moderate conservative that broke the donkey's back, as it were. Right wingers are furious at yet another backward step in the march towards a permanent conservative revolution. The truth is, Bush simply lacks the clout to now get any nomination through that he likes. Instead he must take a more moderate line. (The irony that he is merely reverting back to his original 2000 election pledge of 'compassionate conservatism' is not lost)

The second bit of evidence is that the Senate are putting up more of an opposition over Iraq. In a spending bill, a clause has been added, by a 90-9 vote, that would prohibit the use of "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment" against anyone in U.S. government custody, regardless of where they are held. This astonishingly bipartisan vote gives a clear indication of how feelings are swinging in Washington, and around the country too. People are growing fed up with Iraq, and associate Bush with Iraq. With midterms coming up next year, it is crucial for any Senator who is looking for re-election to distance himself from an unpopular president. The coattalis effect, where a president's popularity carries his supporters through in elections, also works in reverse.

Coming up to the 2004 election, Bush was still riding fairly high - anger over Iraq had not set in with the American public. However, Hurricane Katrina seemed to act as a catalyst for anti-Bush feeling, and now resentment is growing. I'm not much of a political historian, but I would wager a fair amount that this must be the earliest into his second term that a president has become a lame duck. It is going to be a long a drawn out last 3 years of his presidency.